Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b66…aac6 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$377 (+1%) realized +$28 · open +$349
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate23%24W / 81L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,116per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$1,618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$17,306
crypto 17% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-74.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -93.7% -94.3% 5% 2% -45.9%
≤30d 83 -76.3% -78.6% 19% 2% -26.5%
≤90d 105 -71.7% -74.4% 23% 2% -43.4%
all 105 -71.7% -74.4% 23% 2% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.4% 2% -43.4%
10% -76.9% 1% -48.8%
15% -79.1% 0% -53.8%
20% -81.2% 0% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -43% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$236 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$1,618
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$349
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses24 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Open positions41
Markets (closed)105 / 45
History coverage47d
Avg bet$1,116
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $550 $553 +$3 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 19¢ $17 $195 +$178 (+1067%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $17 $155 +$138 (+827%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $17 $139 +$122 (+731%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $17 $106 +$89 (+533%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $17 $76 +$59 (+353%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $17 $57 +$40 (+239%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $17 $55 +$38 (+227%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $17 $53 +$36 (+215%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $17 $35 +$18 (+107%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $17 $29 +$12 (+71%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-31%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-37%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-79%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-79%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-85%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-85%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-85%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-85%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $550 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $555 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $555 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $52 19h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $52 19h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $535 21h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $526 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $520 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $501 10d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $500 10d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 11d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $500 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 97¢ $497 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 97¢ $501 15d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $400 16d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $508 16d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $402 18d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $436 19d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $432 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $437 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY No 96¢ $421 21d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 22d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $101 22d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $397 22d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $420 23d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $410 24d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $410 28d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $413 29d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $413 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,618.06 · official $1,618.06 (match) · 281 history records