Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b61…b236 world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$7
politics 20% −$3
other 19% −$16
sports 13% +$6
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 77 +0.3% -9.3% 30% 1% -9.4%
all 85 +1.5% -8.2% 29% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -9.7%
10% -17.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.4% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage534d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $63 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $88 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $92 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $66 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $76 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $65 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $95 −$3 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $45 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $43 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $74 +$8 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $40 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $80 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $45 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $113 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $45 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $98 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $127 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $43 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $27 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $27 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $40 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $46 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $16 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $4 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $21 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $42 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $46 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $38 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $7 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $13 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $9 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.61 · official $0.00 (match) · 358 history records