Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b60…9975 crypto 124 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$787 (+16%) realized +$431 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%56W / 68L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day56.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days+$431
14 days+$431
30 days+$431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$431
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -2.6% -11.9% 45% 40% -0.6%
≤30d 124 -2.6% -11.9% 45% 40% -0.6%
≤90d 124 -2.6% -11.9% 45% 40% -0.6%
all 124 -2.6% -11.9% 45% 40% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 40% -0.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 36% -10.1%
15% -28.0% 32% -18.8%
20% -35.1% 26% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$27 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses56 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage6d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day56.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$36 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$42 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$8 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$16 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$10 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $54 −$30 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$12 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$13 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $47 +$56 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $39 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$54 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$51 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $47 −$35 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$20 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $109 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $27 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $7 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $29 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $47 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 422 history records