Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0B 0x0b5f…cd1f sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+10%) realized +$14 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$19
other 11% −$3
world 8% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.6% -3.6% 70% 70% +16.5%
≤30d 10 +6.6% -3.6% 70% 70% +16.5%
≤90d 10 +6.6% -3.6% 70% 70% +16.5%
all 10 +6.6% -3.6% 70% 70% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 70% +16.5%
10% -12.8% 60% +5.4%
15% -21.2% 50% -4.8%
20% -28.9% 40% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ 18¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $9 +$5 +54%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $6 +$5 +79%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $7 +$5 +73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $4 +$3 +67%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $14 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $11 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ $9 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $6 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $3 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 16¢ $0 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $10 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $1 22h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $2 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $12 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $7 26h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $15 26h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $4 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $10 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 38¢ $5 47h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 47h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.46 · official $3.46 (match) · 22 history records