Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0B 0x0b5e…61b4 sports 648 markets active 1h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22,423 (-8%) realized −$22,443 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%328W / 318L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$445per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,394
7 days−$779
14 days−$24
30 days+$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$8,054
other 33% −$9,070
crypto 16% −$4,014
world 2% −$1,988
tech 1% +$485
politics 1% +$376
economics 0% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -38.1% -44.0% 34% 34% -13.1%
≤30d 43 -13.7% -21.9% 44% 42% -7.4%
≤90d 182 -29.0% -35.7% 41% 39% -28.8%
all 646 -9.7% -18.3% 51% 49% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 49% -16.7%
10% -26.1% 44% -24.7%
15% -33.3% 35% -31.9%
20% -39.8% 26% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$239 vs −$318 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$662
Realized−$22,443
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses328 / 318
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions2
Markets (closed)646 / 648
History coverage621d
Avg bet$445
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 646 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $542 $547 +$5 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $909 +$471 +52%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $2 +$4 +216%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $354 −$350 -99%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $1,491 +$975 +65%
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $51 −$2 -5%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $781 −$770 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,652 +$496 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,144 +$570 +50%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $401 −$395 -99%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 17 $611 −$606 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $255 −$56 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$21 +41%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $513 +$145 +28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $342 −$340 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $596 +$272 +46%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6,592 +$2,447 +37%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1,015 −$1,010 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $925 −$913 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $810 −$801 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $488 −$480 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $263 +$148 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $75 −$74 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $112 −$110 -98%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $111 +$76 +68%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2 Jun 13 $51 +$188 +367%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $173 +$189 +109%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $122 +$180 +147%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $132 +$210 +158%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $425 +$239 +56%
Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs Zverev Jun 07 $180 +$68 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $581 +$23 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $790 +$527 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 27 $1,200 −$183 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 27 $313 −$308 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 27 $1,000 −$790 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 27 $1,380 +$178 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 27 $765 +$399 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 27 $200 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 27 $1,300 −$1,284 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $549 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $302 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 19h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $354 23h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 31¢ $2 23h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 51¢ $1,065 27h
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura SELL Hyeon Chung 50¢ $48 27h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 63¢ $202 29h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $102 30h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $152 30h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $325 30h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 56¢ $407 30h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $425 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $604 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,047 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,715 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,144 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $401 2d
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 75¢ $188 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $662.03 · official $662.03 (match) · 1913 history records