Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0b5c…3748 other 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,514 (-2%) realized −$1,511 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%246W / 19L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$13
14 days+$24
30 days−$1,979
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$224
world 3% −$2,087
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 88% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 32 -0.4% -9.9% 94% 6% -14.8%
≤90d 222 +0.4% -9.1% 94% 2% -9.6%
all 265 +0.8% -8.8% 93% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 2% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$153 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$1,511
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses246 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)265 / 266
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$266
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $63 $60 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $387 +$14 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $44 −$4 -10%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $68 +$2 +3%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $48 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $32 +$3 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $19 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 02 $106 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 30 $242 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $117 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $459 +$72 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $127 +$1 +1%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $126 +$1 +1%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $2,311 −$2,087 -90%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $1 $0 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $984 −$15 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $235 −$10 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $318 −$58 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $140 −$12 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $357 −$96 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $49 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $801 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $84 −$5 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $295 −$52 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 10 $1,485 +$13 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 07 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $289 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $370 +$26 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 06 $26 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 05 $26 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 0m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 10m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 53m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 53m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 56m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $8 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 22h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 22h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 23h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 23h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 23h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 24h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 24h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 24h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 24h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 26h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 26h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 26h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 26h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 26h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 26h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 26h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 26h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 32h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 32h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 32h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 32h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.40 · official $60.40 (match) · 3500 history records