Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b5c…2ca3 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$88 (-34%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-67.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -64.0% -67.5% 25% 25% -87.1%
≤30d 4 -64.0% -67.5% 25% 25% -87.1%
≤90d 4 -64.0% -67.5% 25% 25% -87.1%
all 4 -64.0% -67.5% 25% 25% -87.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.5% 25% -87.1%
10% -70.6% 25% -88.3%
15% -73.4% 25% -89.4%
20% -76.0% 0% -90.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$77 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records