Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b5c…04a9 weather 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$203 (+8%) realized +$204 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%50W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$32
14 days+$88
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% +$104
sports 13% +$91
other 3% −$15
politics 1% −$31
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -8.3% -17.1% 43% 43% -2.4%
≤30d 130 +2.8% -7.0% 38% 35% +3.3%
≤90d 135 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 33% -1.0%
all 143 -4.3% -13.4% 35% 32% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 32% -2.7%
10% -21.7% 29% -12.0%
15% -29.3% 26% -20.5%
20% -36.2% 23% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$9 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$204
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses50 / 93
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)143 / 149
History coverage610d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? No 65¢ 85¢ $33 $43 +$10 (+31%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $16 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $14 +$14 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $105 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $22 −$20 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $16 +$13 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $9 +$20 +215%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $15 +$15 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $17 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $8 +$21 +258%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $24 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $17 +$12 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $11 −$10 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $11 −$8 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -69%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 $0 -44%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $21 +$5 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $13 −$9 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $16 +$33 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $32 +$21 +66%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$49 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$8 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$18 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$9 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$56 +299%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$7 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $97 +$26 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$5 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 30¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 88¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 85¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? SELL Yes 95¢ $19 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 93¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL Yes 93¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 98¢ $111 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 81¢ $82 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? SELL Yes 98¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? SELL Yes 97¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.94 · official $48.68 · 721 history records