Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b59…be19 other 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$872 (-25%) realized −$1,092 · open +$220
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%35W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day70.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$562now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$22
sports 18% −$260
crypto 4% +$31
world 3% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 226 -25.3% -32.4% 15% 15% -25.1%
≤30d 226 -25.3% -32.4% 15% 15% -25.1%
≤90d 226 -25.3% -32.4% 15% 15% -25.1%
all 226 -25.3% -32.4% 15% 15% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.4% 15% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -38.9% 15% -32.3%
15% -44.8% 15% -38.8%
20% -50.2% 14% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$12 · ×4.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$562
Realized−$1,092
Unrealized+$220
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses35 / 191
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions23
Markets (closed)226 / 249
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day70.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 8¢ 50¢ $25 $152 +$127 (+507%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 19¢ 70¢ $30 $111 +$81 (+271%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $21 $36 +$15 (+74%)
Emam Ashour: 2+ assists Yes 4¢ 12¢ $10 $33 +$23 (+229%)
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals Yes 13¢ 15¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+15%)
Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists Yes 5¢ 12¢ $10 $25 +$15 (+150%)
Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists Yes 10¢ 12¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 20¢ 22¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 12¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals Yes 7¢ 6¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals Yes 9¢ 6¢ $15 $9 −$5 (-37%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-7%)
Emam Ashour: 1+ assists Yes 18¢ 13¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Chris Wood: 2+ goals Yes 4¢ 2¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals Yes 5¢ 2¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-69%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Egypt? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 29¢ 6¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Federico Valverde: 2+ goals Yes 9¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mostafa Zico: 1+ assists Jun 22 $20 +$85 +414%
Trezeguet: 1+ goals Jun 22 $15 +$50 +325%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $15 +$142 +924%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$42 +207%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $17 +$52 +301%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $5 +$15 +298%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $26 −$3 -12%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $26 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 +$10 +200%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $15 +$38 +249%
Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ assists Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ assists Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ goals Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists Jun 21 $9 +$68 +739%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals Jun 21 $10 +$115 +1122%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $58 +$107 +185%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $12 +$45 +365%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $21 +$83 +405%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $15 +$7 +43%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $13 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$9 -18%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$7 -47%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 5m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 68¢ $158 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $62 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 46¢ $70 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 2h
New Zealand leading at halftime? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 2h
Emam Ashour: 2+ assists BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3h
Emam Ashour: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $14 3h
Chris Wood: 2+ goals BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Chris Wood: 2+ goals BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Trezeguet: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $15 3h
Mostafa Zico: 2+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $15 3h
Mostafa Zico: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $15 3h
Omar Marmoush: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $15 3h
Omar Marmoush: 2+ assists BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Mohamed Salah: 2+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $21 3h
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $25 3h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $23 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $561.75 · official $561.75 (match) · 329 history records