Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b57…eccc other 347 markets active 12h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-9%) realized −$107 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate32%105W / 223L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$121
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.7% -6.2% 44% 44% -30.6%
≤30d 77 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 36% -38.3%
≤90d 146 -14.6% -22.8% 41% 34% -25.5%
all 328 -12.4% -20.8% 32% 21% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 21% -18.7%
10% -28.4% 13% -26.5%
15% -35.3% 8% -33.6%
20% -41.6% 7% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses105 / 223
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)328 / 347
History coverage148d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+41%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+245%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 +163%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $0 $0 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $0 $0 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$4 +357%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $9 −$7 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 29h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 29h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 37h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 37h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 39h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 40h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 41h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 43h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.46 · official $11.47 (match) · 2706 history records