Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b56…a082 sports 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63 (-5%) realized −$67 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%42W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$4
14 days−$13
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$99
other 5% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +39.7% +26.4% 68% 63% -12.3%
≤30d 85 +4.9% -5.1% 46% 44% -17.5%
≤90d 89 +1.7% -7.9% 45% 43% -19.2%
all 93 +8.4% -1.9% 45% 43% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 43% -16.2%
10% -11.3% 40% -24.3%
15% -19.9% 33% -31.6%
20% -27.7% 28% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses42 / 51
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions16
Markets (closed)93 / 109
History coverage107d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 72¢ 72¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Beatriz Haddad Maia 82¢ 82¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Zhizhen Zhang 53¢ 55¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Alex de Minaur 78¢ 80¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Diana Shnaider 68¢ 66¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jesper de Jong 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jay Clarke 44¢ 50¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zhang Shuai Zhang 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Kilian Feldbausch 70¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Thomas Faurel 64¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 62¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Luca Nardi 63¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Anastasiia Sobolieva 57¢ 59¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Kyrian Jacquet 44¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Alastair Gray 43¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Tomas Barrios 22¢ 28¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $5 +$5 +109%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $3 +$7 +262%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $24 +$6 +26%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Caijsa Hennemann vs Julia Avdeeva Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $3 +$7 +216%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $6 +$4 +73%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $4 +$6 +146%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 12 $2 +$3 +119%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 12 $3 +$2 +48%
ITF Wuning: Ekaterina Maklakova vs Rina Saigo Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
ITF Guimaraes: Matilde Jorge vs Polina Isakova Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
ITF Guimaraes: Matilde Jorge vs Anastasia Kulikova Jun 12 $6 +$4 +57%
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente Jun 12 $4 +$1 +32%
ITF Wuning: Sonja Zhiyenbayeva vs Yujia Huang Jun 12 $10 −$9 -99%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Sara Milanese vs Lamis Alhussein Abdel Aziz Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Matilde Jorge Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Gabriel Schenekenberg vs Tomas Jordi Leston Jun 02 $2 $0 -6%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 01 $1 $0 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $7 −$7 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 30 $21 +$9 +42%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 29 $5 −$4 -73%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Belinda Bencic May 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $27 +$37 +141%
Chisinau: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Luca Nardi May 29 $9 −$9 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $119 −$9 -8%
Kosice: Federico Bondioli vs Kilian Feldbausch May 28 $10 +$5 +44%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens May 28 $18 +$42 +233%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler May 28 $26 +$9 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $15 +$15 +100%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Kostyuk/Ruse vs Mertens/Zhang May 28 $16 −$1 -6%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell May 28 $13 −$13 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $20 −$19 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $7 +$9 +140%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $14 +$10 +74%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $19 +$13 +68%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $18 −$18 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Eva Lys vs Sorana Cirstea May 27 $11 +$4 +32%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $10 +$6 +65%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $10 $0 -4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $14 −$14 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 26 $27 −$26 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Alexander Blockx May 26 $46 −$2 -3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Little Rock: Henry Searle vs Nicolas Mejia May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 66¢ $7 38m
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 51¢ $5 1h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Jesper de Jong 51¢ $5 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 83¢ $8 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 82¢ $8 1h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 45¢ $5 2h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 44¢ $4 2h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 44¢ $4 2h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 54¢ $5 2h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 54¢ $5 2h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 53¢ $5 2h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 63¢ $6 2h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 53¢ $5 2h
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Alastair Gray 43¢ $4 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Shuai Zhang 48¢ $5 3h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Shuai Zhang 48¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $7 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $7 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $7 6h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $7 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Beatriz Haddad Maia 81¢ $8 7h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 64¢ $6 7h
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 57¢ $6 9h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 69¢ $7 11h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 22¢ $2 11h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 47¢ $5 12h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 62¢ $6 13h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 78¢ $8 14h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 79¢ $8 14h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Kilian Feldbausch 70¢ $7 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.90 · official $178.80 (match) · 352 history records