trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 50% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 60% | 0% | -7.5% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 67% | 0% | -7.7% |
| all | 20 | -21.1% | -28.6% | 60% | 5% | -13.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.6% | 5% | -13.4% |
| 10% | -35.4% | 0% | -21.7% |
| 15% | -41.7% | 0% | -29.3% |
| 20% | -47.4% | 0% | -36.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 23 | $36 | +$1 | +2% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $37 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 27 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 26 | $4 | $0 | -2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $32 | +$3 | +10% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Dec 15 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Jun 28 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | May 17 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will someone else win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian | May 07 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 28 | $26 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration? | Apr 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? | Mar 30 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? | Mar 29 | $27 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? | Mar 28 | $1 | −$1 | -53% |
| Ye divorce before April? | Mar 28 | $28 | $0 | +0% |