Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b42…8086 other 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-7%) realized −$121 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%33W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$19
14 days−$38
30 days+$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$17
sports 26% −$102
crypto 10% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.3% -4.7% 53% 53% -13.7%
≤30d 32 +5.0% -5.0% 53% 53% +7.1%
≤90d 75 -16.1% -24.1% 44% 43% -14.8%
all 75 -16.1% -24.1% 44% 43% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 43% -14.8%
10% -31.4% 37% -23.0%
15% -38.0% 36% -30.4%
20% -44.1% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses33 / 42
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 79
History coverage84d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals No 56¢ 78¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists No 71¢ 86¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists No 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$10 +20%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shots Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 −$88 -98%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $45 +$37 +82%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +137%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 +$24 +92%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$53 +206%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Alexis Vega: 2+ shots Jun 11 $25 +$15 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $25 +$20 +79%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $51 −$44 -87%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $18 −$18 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 04 $123 +$40 +32%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $9 +$11 +115%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $51 +$127 +248%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $10 +$9 +84%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 +$6 +54%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $3 +$5 +152%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $14 +$17 +120%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? May 20 $20 $0 +2%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $3 +$7 +235%
Will Rayan be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? May 17 $25 +$5 +21%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Paysandu SC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? May 11 $30 +$5 +17%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 11 $5 +$5 +93%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: LOS vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 10 $10 +$8 +75%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? May 10 $51 +$23 +45%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $15 +$10 +66%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 65¢ $61 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $10 1h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY No 71¢ $10 2h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY No 50¢ $10 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 29¢ $17 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 20h
Takefusa Kubo: 2+ shots BUY Yes 10¢ $5 29h
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots BUY Yes 41¢ $51 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 41h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY No 63¢ $20 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 89¢ $82 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $45 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $49 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 49¢ $19 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $78 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 8d
Alexis Vega: 2+ shots SELL No 80¢ $40 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.96 · official $52.96 · 146 history records