Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:11:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b42…9fc4 weather 942 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,727 (-44%) realized −$77 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%136W / 708L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day60.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$1,036
14 days−$1,368
30 days−$1,368
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$69
other 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-53.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 746 -77.7% -79.8% 7% 7% -54.2%
≤30d 761 -78.1% -80.2% 7% 7% -60.5%
≤90d 844 -49.1% -53.9% 16% 16% -11.7%
all 844 -49.1% -53.9% 16% 16% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.9% 16% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -58.3% 15% -20.2%
15% -62.4% 14% -27.9%
20% -66.0% 12% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -61% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×5.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses136 / 708
Open positions216
Markets (closed)844 / 942
History coverage38d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day60.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 216 History 844 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 50¢ 99¢ $20 $40 +$20 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Yes 77¢ 68¢ $31 $27 −$4 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 46¢ 99¢ $12 $27 +$14 (+116%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? Yes 10¢ 99¢ $2 $25 +$22 (+926%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+92%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 29¢ 91¢ $4 $14 +$9 (+214%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 50¢ 89¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+77%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+612%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Yes 91¢ 58¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Yes 12¢ 28¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+130%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 36¢ 21¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+78%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 14? Yes 2¢ 38¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+1409%)
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 42¢ 73¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+74%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 5¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-71%)
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+220%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $6 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 38¢ 23¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 4¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2464%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 3¢ 89¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2678%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $0 +$2 +6112%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $0 −$7 -5396%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $29 +$11 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$21 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$9 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$9 +1441%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +334%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$8 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$44 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +280%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$12 +441%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16m
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 16m
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16m
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 16m
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 16m
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16m
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 16m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 43m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 45m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 71¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.48 · official $225.59 · 3500 history records