Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0B 0x0b3f…5a9f other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,363 (+1%) realized +$3,369 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate61%142W / 92L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,115per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$659est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$2,746
sports 27% −$1,550
finance 3% −$593
world 2% +$573
crypto 1% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -2.5% -11.8% 62% 62% -13.3%
≤30d 72 -1.3% -10.7% 65% 56% -9.5%
≤90d 222 -4.6% -13.7% 60% 48% -9.3%
all 234 -3.5% -12.7% 61% 49% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 49% -8.9%
10% -21.1% 31% -17.6%
15% -28.7% 16% -25.6%
20% -35.7% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,313) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$406 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$994
Realized+$3,369
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses142 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$659
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage99d
Avg bet$1,115
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,007 +$160 +16%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,011 +$112 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,207 −$780 -65%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $403 +$103 +26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,210 +$190 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,008 +$342 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,508 +$300 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $805 +$219 +27%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,013 −$653 -64%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,212 −$748 -62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,007 +$324 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,007 +$324 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,212 −$1,696 -53%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,209 −$507 -42%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $603 −$13 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,008 +$379 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,010 +$264 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,211 −$171 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2,220 +$944 +42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $718 −$712 -99%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,510 +$406 +27%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,510 +$276 +18%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $605 −$600 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,003 +$14 +1%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $804 −$413 -51%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $1,504 +$160 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $201 −$5 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,307 +$88 +7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,207 +$114 +10%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $1,007 −$60 -6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,010 +$190 +19%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $604 +$126 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,505 +$50 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,207 +$99 +8%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $1,206 +$253 +21%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2,226 +$1,214 +54%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,011 −$647 -64%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1,208 +$172 +14%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3,516 −$1,594 -45%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,209 −$8 -1%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1,211 −$681 -56%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $1,005 −$695 -69%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $122 −$120 -99%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $1,009 +$440 +44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $606 −$379 -63%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $506 −$29 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1,003 +$119 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $1,167 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 70¢ $1,124 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $427 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $506 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $403 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1,011 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,400 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,350 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,808 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 31h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,008 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,025 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1,508 31h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $360 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1,013 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $805 33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $465 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,332 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,007 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,332 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,007 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,516 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.51 · official $993.51 (match) · 629 history records