Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0B 0x0b3d…a8a3 sports 161 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-7%) realized −$42 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate47%70W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$16
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$23
weather 24% −$11
world 7% −$4
other 2% −$6
crypto 2% −$6
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +6.5% -3.6% 50% 44% +0.2%
≤30d 89 +2.2% -7.6% 48% 43% -12.6%
≤90d 150 -18.8% -26.6% 47% 28% -16.9%
all 150 -18.8% -26.6% 47% 28% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 28% -16.9%
10% -33.6% 26% -24.9%
15% -40.0% 23% -32.1%
20% -45.9% 23% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses70 / 80
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions11
Markets (closed)150 / 161
History coverage85d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 48¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 44¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 43¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs HOTU 41¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Cloud Rising 45¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D paiN Academy 43¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Cloud Rising 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $2 $0 -15%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2 +206%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +146%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +146%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 $0 -18%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 49¢ $1 21m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 44¢ $1 21m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 45¢ $1 57m
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 41¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 33¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 45¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 48¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 46¢ $1 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY paiN Academy 43¢ $1 8h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 43¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 27¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $1 12h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 12h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 88¢ $1 12h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 46¢ $1 13h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 42¢ $1 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $1 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 39¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 37¢ $1 18h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $1 19h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $1 19h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 42¢ $1 20h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 20h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 47¢ $1 20h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 49¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.04 · official $10.04 (match) · 314 history records