Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0B 0x0b3c…a34a sports 551 markets active 17h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,561 (-8%) realized −$1,560 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%259W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$60
14 days−$183
30 days−$590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,694
other 5% +$98
crypto 2% −$186
world 2% +$59
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -3.7% -12.9% 47% 47% -18.6%
≤30d 216 -13.3% -21.5% 44% 44% -35.8%
≤90d 511 -11.1% -19.5% 45% 43% -20.1%
all 541 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 46% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 46% -17.3%
10% -24.0% 41% -25.2%
15% -31.4% 38% -32.5%
20% -38.1% 31% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$549
Realized−$1,560
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses259 / 282
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions10
Markets (closed)541 / 551
History coverage122d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $90 $109 +$19 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $90 $102 +$13 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $90 $85 −$4 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $90 $76 −$14 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $90 $75 −$15 (-17%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+24%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $3 +$3 +114%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $8 +$4 +46%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 +$5 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +250%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$7 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $7 −$2 -35%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$6 +79%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$5 +72%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$9 +109%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$6 +180%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$14 +200%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$11 +216%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7 +$4 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7 +$3 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +129%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $24 +$21 +88%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 +$9 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 +$12 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 17h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 33h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $0 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $2 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $2 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $4 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $7 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $1 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $3 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $4 38h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 45h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 65¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $3 45h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 42¢ $4 45h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7 45h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 45h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 68¢ $8 45h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 34¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 35¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $5 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 2d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 65¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $2 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.09 · official $549.09 (match) · 1407 history records