Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b39…a8c1 other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-1%) realized −$64 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate24%29W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$1
14 days−$66
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$2
politics 25% −$30
other 17% −$47
tech 11% −$18
sports 6% +$30
crypto 5% −$7
economics 4% −$4
culture 1% −$15
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -13.1% -21.3% 9% 9% -10.0%
≤30d 67 -20.2% -27.8% 10% 1% -15.8%
≤90d 100 -13.4% -21.7% 16% 6% -11.4%
all 121 -12.2% -20.5% 24% 7% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 7% -10.7%
10% -28.2% 3% -19.3%
15% -35.1% 2% -27.1%
20% -41.5% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses29 / 92
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)121 / 125
History coverage151d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $212 $218 +$7 (+3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $135 $133 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-17%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Jun 18 $51 +$15 +30%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor Jun 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $7 $0 -6%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 18 $16 −$1 -8%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $18 −$11 -61%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $14 $0 -1%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 11 $21 −$2 -8%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $15 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 11 $8 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$4 -35%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $56 −$9 -16%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -10%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 04 $16 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 03 $13 −$3 -25%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 03 $4 $0 -6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 03 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $20 −$2 -8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 02 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 02 $34 −$1 -3%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 01 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026? May 30 $14 $0 -1%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 30 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? May 30 $11 $0 -1%
Will Christopher Taylor be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Ma May 30 $6 $0 -2%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 26 $10 $0 -1%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 26 $18 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $138 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $215 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $27 3h
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 37¢ $67 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day SELL No 2¢ $0 13h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF SELL No 46¢ $0 13h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF SELL Yes 46¢ $4 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY No 8¢ $1 15h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL Yes 88¢ $44 15h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY Yes 88¢ $44 15h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY No 52¢ $0 15h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY Yes 47¢ $4 15h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF SELL No 52¢ $0 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day SELL No 7¢ $1 15h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl SELL Yes 39¢ $2 15h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa SELL Yes 55¢ $11 15h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF SELL Yes 47¢ $5 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY No 8¢ $1 15h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl BUY Yes 39¢ $2 15h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY No 52¢ $0 15h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY Yes 47¢ $5 15h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa BUY Yes 57¢ $11 15h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor SELL Yes 33¢ $1 15h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI SELL No 33¢ $6 15h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor BUY Yes 34¢ $1 15h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY No 34¢ $7 15h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b SELL Yes 74¢ $15 15h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 79¢ $16 15h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 6d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.07 · official $388.07 (match) · 412 history records