Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0b2e…637a politics 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$17
politics 41% −$18
sports 5% −$33
tech 4% −$2
economics 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 127 -0.9% -10.3% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 141 -6.0% -14.9% 6% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -23.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -30.5% 3% -26.2%
20% -37.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×9.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage114d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $286 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $210 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $239 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $196 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $213 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $205 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $271 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $239 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $517 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $214 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 09 $241 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $191 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $231 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $243 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $277 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $270 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $194 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $234 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $252 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $408 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $210 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $458 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $263 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $278 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $284 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $483 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 4h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 9h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 4d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $44 4d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $44 5d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 9d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 12d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $30 12d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 13d
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 13d
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 20d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $210 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $210 22d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $196 24d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $196 25d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 26d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 393 history records