Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b2c…dbae crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate39%19W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day38.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$11
other 33% −$16
sports 2% −$2
world 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 20% -10.3%
≤30d 49 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 20% -10.3%
≤90d 49 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 20% -10.3%
all 49 -9.8% -18.4% 39% 20% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 20% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 8% -18.9%
15% -33.4% 6% -26.7%
20% -39.9% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses19 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day38.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $57 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$11 +21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $16 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-2 Jun 23 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $36 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$8 +20%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 23 $1 $0 -3%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $10 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $1 $0 -25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$23 +57%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +50%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 20 $6 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $37 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $24 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $37 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 16m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 17m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 46¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.36 · official $40.36 (match) · 137 history records