Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b2c…561b sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$454
other 49% +$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +23.7% +11.9% 48% 45% -18.4%
≤30d 33 +23.7% +11.9% 48% 45% -18.4%
≤90d 33 +23.7% +11.9% 48% 45% -18.4%
all 33 +23.7% +11.9% 48% 45% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 45% -18.4%
10% +1.2% 42% -26.2%
15% -8.6% 42% -33.3%
20% -17.5% 36% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$77 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $35 +$25 +70%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$9 -23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $430 −$254 -59%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $24 +$36 +150%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 +$35 +138%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 +$31 +113%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $28 +$31 +113%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $240 −$150 -62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $147 +$153 +104%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $63 −$4 -7%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $174 −$174 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $153 −$153 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $104 +$82 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $98 −$66 -67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $76 +$44 +58%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $124 +$44 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $126 +$18 +14%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $73 +$1 +2%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $108 +$42 +39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $47 +$53 +113%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 +$123 +456%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $62 +$88 +144%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 +$202 +426%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $147 −$146 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $60 −$31 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 53¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 18¢ $176 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $34 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $25 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 98¢ $59 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 52¢ $260 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $23 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $14 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $2 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $2 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No $90 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $28 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $13 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $7 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $3 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $430 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $240 11h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $17 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $28 11h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $3 11h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $16 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $33 12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $105 12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $155 12h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $25 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 20¢ $59 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records