Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b2b…df2e sports 213 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$14 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%118W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$17
14 days−$10
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$28
other 33% +$70
world 4% −$28
crypto 2% −$29
politics 2% −$3
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +3.6% -6.2% 65% 65% -8.9%
≤30d 130 +1.2% -8.5% 70% 69% -9.5%
≤90d 205 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 56% -9.9%
all 205 -9.0% -17.7% 58% 56% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 56% -9.9%
10% -25.6% 36% -18.5%
15% -32.8% 17% -26.4%
20% -39.4% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses118 / 87
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions8
Markets (closed)205 / 213
History coverage47d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? No 82¢ 84¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 84¢ 82¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 27¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-73%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$28 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $101 +$33 +33%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$9 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$24 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 −$3 -4%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -5%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -3%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $50 +$11 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 +$15 +31%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$13 +26%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $50 +$18 +36%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$18 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$5 +11%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $50 +$8 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 77¢ $50 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 74¢ $50 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $50 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $50 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $50 14h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $50 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $50 20h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $50 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $50 41h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $50 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $49 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL No 80¢ $49 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $49 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL No 83¢ $49 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 81¢ $49 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 79¢ $49 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $48 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL No 81¢ $49 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 74¢ $49 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $50 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $47 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL No 86¢ $49 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 78¢ $49 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $50 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $50 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $50 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 78¢ $50 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $50 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.37 · official $400.37 (match) · 460 history records