Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0B 0x0b2b…5f30 other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 42L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$8
14 days+$18
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$11
world 38% +$46
sports 9% −$1
politics 8% +$2
finance 2% +$3
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 43% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 26 +77.6% +60.7% 58% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 35 +54.5% +39.8% 51% 3% -9.2%
all 78 +21.2% +9.6% 46% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 4% -9.3%
10% -0.9% 3% -17.9%
15% -10.4% 1% -25.9%
20% -19.2% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage476d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $190 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $461 +$3 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $161 +$5 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $94 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $192 +$10 +5%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $259 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $341 −$3 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $174 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $215 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $21 $0 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $174 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $274 +$3 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $321 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $393 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $186 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $184 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $299 +$26 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $188 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $168 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $145 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $13 −$1 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $164 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $482 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $940 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $1,033 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $939 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,972 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $1,033 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Dec 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 04 $6 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $79 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $81 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $190 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $190 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $107 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $81 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $187 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $190 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $122 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $68 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $39 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $105 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $20 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $105 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $20 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $63 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.09 · official $1.57 (match) · 296 history records