Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:02:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0B 0x0b2a…0a73 sports 1456 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$479 (+2%) realized +$489 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%687W / 533L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$2,266
other 24% +$1,002
world 0% +$23
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 286 +17.9% +6.6% 63% 56% +7.4%
≤30d 1121 +14.6% +3.7% 58% 53% +4.6%
≤90d 1220 +12.9% +2.1% 56% 52% +3.9%
all 1220 +12.9% +2.1% 56% 52% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 52% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 49% -6.1%
15% -16.6% 46% -15.1%
20% -24.8% 42% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$1,484
Realized+$489
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses687 / 533
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions77
Markets (closed)1220 / 1456
History coverage41d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 1220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 59¢ 62¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Ben Shelton vs. Nick Kyrgios: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 63¢ 64¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Chun-Hsin Tseng 75¢ 76¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-11%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+7%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 10¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Genaro Alberto Olivieri 44¢ 50¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 55¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Set Handicap: Li (-1.5) vs Birrell (+1.5) Birrell 67¢ 74¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 70¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 62¢ 64¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman Ryan Seggerman 65¢ 68¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Oliver Crawford 53¢ 55¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Bejlek 48¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 419 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $20 +$21 +101%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $20 +$22 +109%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Set Handicap: Zarate (-1.5) vs Gomez (+1.5) Jun 15 $17 +$23 +129%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Kusuhara vs Matsuoka Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Gill vs Gaston Jun 15 $7 +$9 +134%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $17 $0 -2%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $20 +$14 +70%
Carlos Sanchez Jover vs. Alejandro Moro Canas: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Aksu vs Sanchez Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $18 −$1 -4%
Set 1 Winner: Borges vs Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $23 +$7 +32%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -99%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $41 +$44 +109%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$63 +307%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $41 +$46 +114%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $41 +$35 +86%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Set Handicap: Kawa (-1.5) vs Bronzetti (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$2 +38%
Set 1 Winner: Mazzola vs Giovannini Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$28 +197%
Spread: Paris Basketball (-7.5) Jun 14 $17 +$12 +73%
Will CD Unión La Calera win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Stroemsgodset IF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$6 +31%
FK Haugesund vs. Ranheim: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 +$8 +93%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $20 +$15 +73%
Set 1 Winner: Mochizuki vs Zheng Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) Jun 14 $37 +$14 +38%
Will Stroemmen IF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Stefano D'agostino Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
ITF Madrid: Ruth Roura Llaverias vs Briyana Ivanova Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
Set 1 Winner: Blinkova vs Bondar Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$75 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) BUY Hanfmann 55¢ $20 1m
Set Handicap: Imai (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) BUY Zhang 57¢ $20 21m
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 25¢ $20 1h
Chung vs. Imamura: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 1h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 75¢ $20 1h
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 75¢ $20 1h
Set Handicap: Tseng (-1.5) vs Martin (+1.5) BUY Tseng 52¢ $16 1h
Set Handicap: Ortenzi (-1.5) vs Rispoli (+1.5) BUY Rispoli 55¢ $10 2h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 53¢ $20 2h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 72¢ $20 3h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 60¢ $20 4h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 59¢ $20 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 5h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 6h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 6h
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies BUY Toronto Marlies 51¢ $20 6h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 44¢ $20 6h
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro SELL Eduardo Ribeiro 92¢ $0 7h
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro SELL Eduardo Ribeiro 92¢ $1 7h
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro SELL Eduardo Ribeiro 92¢ $5 7h
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) BUY Bejlek 48¢ $20 7h
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Eduardo Ribeiro 90¢ $6 7h
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) BUY Virtanen 51¢ $20 8h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 8h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Rio Noguchi 54¢ $8 9h
Set 1 Winner: Kusuhara vs Matsuoka BUY Matsuoka 62¢ $20 9h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery SELL Lucio Ratti 73¢ $17 11h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 74¢ $17 11h
Set 1 Winner: Droguet vs Broom BUY Droguet 53¢ $20 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,484.06 · official $1,483.19 (match) · 2443 history records