Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b28…abde politics 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,263 (-2%) realized −$3,263 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%33W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,259per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$17
14 days−$37
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$123
other 34% −$51
sports 11% −$3,112
culture 5% −$11
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
world 0% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 -5.4% -14.4% 11% 2% -9.9%
≤90d 111 -12.1% -20.5% 5% 1% -11.9%
all 165 -2.4% -11.7% 20% 9% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 9% -11.0%
10% -20.1% 9% -19.5%
15% -27.8% 7% -27.3%
20% -34.9% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,742) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$28 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,263
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses33 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)165 / 165
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,259
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 165 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $289 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,210 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,641 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,310 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,003 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,880 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $626 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,485 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,803 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $4,634 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,918 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $641 −$1 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $6,043 −$7 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $619 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $86 −$86 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $291 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $608 +$1 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $4,843 −$5 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 26 $592 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $53 +$34 +65%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $534 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $736 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2,349 −$6 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,105 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $736 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $288 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $289 3h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 26h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 27h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $354 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $355 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $663 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $664 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $566 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $567 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $644 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $645 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $668 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $669 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $645 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $646 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $576 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $577 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $572 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $573 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $632 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $633 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $562 8d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $563 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $626 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $626 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $554 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $555 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $125 11d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $593 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 604 history records