Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0B 0x0b28…647f politics 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,033 (-1%) realized −$1,035 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%24W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,230per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$21
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$100
other 36% −$1,170
sports 8% +$220
culture 3% −$6
economics 2% −$3
world 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 86 -1.4% -10.8% 6% 2% -10.4%
all 149 +0.9% -8.7% 16% 12% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 12% -10.0%
10% -17.4% 12% -18.7%
15% -25.4% 11% -26.5%
20% -32.7% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,653) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$19 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$1,035
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses24 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,230
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $301 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $561 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $564 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $566 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,168 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,272 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,260 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,125 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,594 −$4 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,328 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,455 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,745 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,183 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $667 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,222 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,733 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $853 −$1 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $66 +$61 +93%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5,123 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $189 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $382 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $345 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $2,224 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,122 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $397 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $77 +$72 +93%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $324 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $327 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 10 $908 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,463 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $4,124 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $885 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $872 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $562 15m
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $563 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $560 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $561 5h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $563 6h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $564 7h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $565 47h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $566 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $563 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $564 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $467 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $468 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $410 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $410 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $465 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $465 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $478 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $479 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $569 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $570 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $567 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $568 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $568 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $569 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $572 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $573 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $301 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $817 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $818 14d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $818 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.33 · official $302.33 (match) · 476 history records