Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b26…6091 sports 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,344 (-15%) realized −$3,616 · open −$728
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%41W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$497est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$7,610
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.7% -22.8% 38% 38% +24.5%
≤30d 90 -20.2% -27.8% 33% 32% -29.8%
≤90d 137 -24.1% -31.4% 30% 29% -35.5%
all 137 -24.1% -31.4% 30% 29% -35.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 29% -35.5%
10% -37.9% 28% -41.6%
15% -43.9% 26% -47.3%
20% -49.4% 23% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$171 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized−$3,616
Unrealized−$728
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses41 / 96
Est. fees paid−$497
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage38d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 41¢ 14¢ $1,100 $372 −$728 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 16 $5 +$3 +65%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$10 +68%
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Kenin (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$6 +146%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $38 −$1 -3%
Poznan (Doubles): Karol/Serdarusic vs Shevchenko/Yevseyev Jun 15 $30 −$1 -3%
Gray vs. Schoolkate: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $30 −$1 -3%
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$1 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $995 +$496 +50%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $19 −$19 -97%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $389 −$380 -98%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $424 −$300 -71%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $167 +$114 +68%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $408 +$796 +195%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $301 −$294 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $396 −$190 -48%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $408 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $112 +$104 +93%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $173 −$171 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $511 −$500 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $203 −$100 -49%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO5) - Winline Star Series Playo Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $611 −$300 -49%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 07 $101 +$64 +63%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs VooDooSh Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $82 +$78 +95%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $306 +$500 +164%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $303 +$181 +60%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$86 +84%
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $304 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $498 +$1,112 +223%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $64 −$63 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 26 $101 +$37 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs INOX Division (BO3) - ESL Challenger L May 26 $337 −$100 -30%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner May 26 $88 −$86 -99%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $173 −$170 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 1 Winner May 26 $202 +$90 +44%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Orbit Anonymo - Game 4 Winner May 26 $101 −$30 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 36¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 42¢ $1,017 1h
Valorant: Leviatán Academy vs ShindeN - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Academy 19¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 76¢ $5 2d
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY OXEN 66¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 84¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Spirit Academy 60¢ $5 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $25 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 71¢ $5 5d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $5 5d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $5 5d
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 51¢ $30 6d
Gray vs. Schoolkate: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 6d
Raducanu vs. Pliskova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $38 6d
Poznan (Doubles): Karol/Serdarusic vs Shevchenko/Yevseyev BUY Karol/Serdarusic 51¢ $30 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,491 6d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 7¢ $19 6d
Set Handicap: Golubic (-1.5) vs Kenin (+1.5) BUY Kenin 40¢ $4 6d
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY SPARTA 18¢ $1 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $995 6d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY GenOne 16¢ $23 6d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 22¢ $82 12d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 22¢ $102 12d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 23¢ $102 12d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 18¢ $102 12d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Legacy 99¢ $233 12d
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 35¢ $102 12d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 44¢ $102 12d
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 56¢ $101 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.63 · official $401.63 (match) · 345 history records