Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:19:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b26…f598 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 80% −$14
politics 11% −$5
other 7% +$4
sports 1% −$29
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +7.1% -3.1% 23% 8% -6.1%
≤90d 40 -5.5% -14.5% 18% 10% -11.0%
all 51 -4.4% -13.5% 20% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 8% -9.8%
10% -21.8% 8% -18.4%
15% -29.3% 8% -26.3%
20% -36.3% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage606d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $7 +$7 +93%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $132 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $68 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Apr 11 $49 $0 -1%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$6 +72%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $9 +$6 +72%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $13 +$6 +46%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 27 $5 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 02 $13,576 −$14 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $30 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $273 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $419 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $420 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $8 4d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $24 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $14 12d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $14 12d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 27d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 27d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 27d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 28d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 28d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 51¢ $7 28d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.96 · official $52.96 (match) · 232 history records