Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0B
0x0b25…efd9
politics · 220 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses59 / 157
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)216 / 220
History coverage97d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 4 History 216 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $23 $0 -1%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 13 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 -2%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 09 $48 −$2 -5%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $12 $0 -2%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $61 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 50% −$6
other 26% −$2
sports 10% −$10
crypto 8% $0
world 4% $0
economics 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $5 54m
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 54m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $8 3h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 6h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 6h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 7h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 10h
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $10 11h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $5 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $10 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.7% -10.2% 6% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 96 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 185 -0.0% -9.6% 23% 0% -10.0%
all 216 -0.1% -9.6% 27% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.96 · official $30.96 (match) · 1366 history records