Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0B 0x0b24…6a9c sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$135 (+1%) realized +$144 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%35W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$282
7 days+$331
14 days+$384
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$246
other 45% −$211
world 3% −$252
crypto 2% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +68.5% +52.5% 58% 58% +3.8%
≤30d 71 +29.3% +16.9% 49% 48% -7.7%
≤90d 71 +29.3% +16.9% 49% 48% -7.7%
all 71 +29.3% +16.9% 49% 48% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 48% -7.7%
10% +5.8% 39% -16.6%
15% -4.5% 34% -24.6%
20% -13.8% 30% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$78 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$378
Realized+$144
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses35 / 36
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage18d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $126 $123 −$4 (-3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $328 +$110 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $77 +$47 +61%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $174 +$30 +17%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $204 +$47 +23%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $107 +$97 +91%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$34 -33%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $326 −$252 -77%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $99 +$46 +47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $380 −$185 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $57 +$124 +218%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $174 +$106 +61%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $135 −$35 -26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $764 −$244 -32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $82 +$64 +78%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$47 +228%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 −$62 -86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $305 +$97 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $123 +$66 +54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 −$12 -39%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $383 +$98 +26%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $57 −$4 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $67 −$65 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $346 +$123 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $41 +$29 +71%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $152 +$26 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$109 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $36 +$25 +70%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $70 +$46 +66%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $46 +$49 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $19 −$13 -68%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $43 −$43 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $20 +$2 +12%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $237 +$50 +21%
Will Togo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $41 +$72 +177%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $220 −$98 -44%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $41 −$39 -96%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $249 −$5 -2%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 −$38 -37%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $81 +$71 +88%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $81 +$49 +61%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $77 +$80 +104%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $81 −$55 -68%
Peru vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $61 +$97 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $129 32m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 35m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $205 36m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $21 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $21 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $438 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $328 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $124 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $204 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $174 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $77 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $195 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $56 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $204 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $204 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $107 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $69 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $63 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $103 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $145 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $99 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $205 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $281 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $103 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $174 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $174 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.83 · official $373.39 · 167 history records