Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:18:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b21…7da2 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,872 (-38%) realized −$5,866 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$711per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$5,834
other 6% +$38
politics 1% −$16
world 0% +$1
economics 0% −$52
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
all 20 -27.2% -34.1% 45% 20% -43.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 20% -43.7%
10% -40.4% 20% -49.1%
15% -46.2% 20% -54.0%
20% -51.5% 20% -58.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$1,350) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -51% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$548 vs −$981 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$5,866
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage227d
Avg bet$711
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 42¢ $105 $89 −$16 (-15%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 88¢ $35 $44 +$9 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 08 $5 $0 +6%
Celtics vs. Nets Jan 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 22? Jan 23 $30 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Dec 26 $1,449 −$1,449 -100%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 26 $546 −$546 -100%
Heat vs. Hawks Dec 26 $2,623 −$2,623 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 26 $1,050 +$3,150 +300%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 25 $192 +$8 +4%
Pistons vs. Trail Blazers Dec 23 $526 +$274 +52%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Dec 19 $2,660 −$2,660 -100%
Dolphins vs. Steelers Dec 16 $1,860 +$1,140 +61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Dec 16 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Thunder vs. Warriors Dec 03 $162 −$162 -100%
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers Nov 30 $592 −$592 -100%
Stars vs. Oilers Nov 30 $264 +$336 +127%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Nov 22 $656 −$656 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Norway win on 2025-11-13? Nov 15 $729 +$21 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $69 60d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $105 87d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 147d
Celtics vs. Nets BUY Nets 24¢ $36 154d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 155d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 69¢ $326 182d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 69¢ $2 182d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 69¢ $21 182d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 69¢ $11 182d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 69¢ $345 182d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 69¢ $45 182d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 69¢ $631 182d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 69¢ $69 182d
Celtics vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 26¢ $546 182d
Heat vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 61¢ $2,623 182d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $143 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $1 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $13 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $1 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $175 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $8 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $8 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $8 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $8 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $8 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $8 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $8 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $8 183d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $8 183d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.50 · official $133.50 (match) · 234 history records