Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b1c…e2a5 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$1
crypto 24% +$3
other 22% −$2
weather 9% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 28 -8.9% -17.6% 46% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -9.3%
10% -25.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -32.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -39.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage461d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $3 $0 -9%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $73 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $72 +$1 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $13 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $15 $0 +3%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4? Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25? Dec 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +3%
Another crypto hack over $1b before April? Apr 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 29 $77 −$1 -2%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $1 $0 -40%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 26 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $63 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $141 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $41 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $41 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $36 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $40 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $41 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $17 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $17 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 11d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $13 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $13 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records