Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b1b…a70b crypto 400 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,491 (-27%) realized −$5,491 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%344W / 524L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day168.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$555
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-60.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 592 -79.7% -81.7% 18% 2% -80.6%
≤30d 868 -56.0% -60.2% 40% 5% -55.0%
≤90d 868 -56.0% -60.2% 40% 5% -55.0%
all 868 -56.0% -60.2% 40% 5% -55.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -60.2% 5% -55.0%
10% ← realistic here -64.0% 1% -59.3%
15% -67.5% 1% -63.2%
20% -70.7% 0% -66.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$40 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,491
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses344 / 524
Open positions0
Markets (closed)868 / 400
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day168.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 868 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 66°F or higher on February Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 19? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on February 22? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will "Wuthering Heights" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Toma Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 1 Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on February 20? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$8 -107%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 2AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records