Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0B
0x0b19…e769
world · 41 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage369d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $13 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $4 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $41 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 09 $2 $0 +14%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 09 $164 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $104 −$25 -24%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 05 $47 +$23 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 23 $18 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $18 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 20 $16 $0 -1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 20 $1 $0 -12%
Starmer out before July? Jun 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 18 $18 $0 +2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during his 250th Army Anniversary re Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May? Jun 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% $0
other 28% −$27
culture 17% $0
sports 6% +$23
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $36 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $42 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $8 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 99¢ $46 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $45 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $34 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.3%
all 40 -3.4% -12.6% 40% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.85 · official $17.85 (match) · 123 history records