Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0B
0x0b18…2639
weather · 1056 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$876 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$839 · open −$37
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$105
Realized−$839
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses384 / 585
Open positions57
Markets (closed)969 / 1056
Avg bet$8
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 57 History 969 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$74
14 days−$123
30 days−$1,362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $6 $18 +$12 (+225%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Yes 39¢ 99¢ $3 $9 +$5 (+154%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 46¢ 71¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Yes 25¢ 64¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+156%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Yes 52¢ 73¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Yes 48¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+108%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Yes 48¢ 72¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 36¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 45¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Yes 44¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 41¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Yes 46¢ 49¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 49¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$50 +1376%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $3 +$3 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 +$3 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +186%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$5 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$12 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$16 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$15 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$3 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$36 +485%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$5 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$8 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$15 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$8 +335%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$876
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 23m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 348 -1.8% -11.2% 42% 42% -11.9%
≤30d 789 -13.2% -21.5% 37% 37% -29.6%
≤90d 952 -8.3% -17.0% 39% 38% -19.2%
all 969 -8.0% -16.7% 40% 39% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 39% -18.7%
10% -24.7% 37% -26.5%
15% -32.0% 35% -33.6%
20% -38.6% 33% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.22 · official $105.22 (match) · 2259 history records