Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0B 0x0b18…5b0a other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,898 (+1%) realized +$1,898 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%27W / 110L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,563per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$159
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$1
politics 39% −$105
sports 13% +$1,980
economics 3% −$6
culture 2% −$5
world 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -0.4% -9.9% 6% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 86 -7.3% -16.1% 5% 3% -8.7%
all 137 +1.6% -8.1% 20% 9% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 9% -8.7%
10% -16.9% 9% -17.5%
15% -24.9% 8% -25.4%
20% -32.3% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$2,102) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$7 · ×14.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$368
Realized+$1,898
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses27 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,563
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $368 $368 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,951 −$4 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,301 −$6 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $970 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $1,384 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,663 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $2,101 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $2,939 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,611 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,600 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $86 +$26 +31%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $67 +$105 +158%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,347 −$2 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,244 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,674 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,148 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 20 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $2,716 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,450 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $8,325 −$7 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $2,371 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $2,722 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,056 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $6,506 −$7 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,672 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $7,552 −$8 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,308 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,619 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $785 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $787 4h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $348 20h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $349 23h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $685 25h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $685 28h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $956 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $957 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $853 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $855 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $952 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $953 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $368 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,365 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,367 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,076 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,077 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,145 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $968 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $970 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,383 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,384 9d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,047 11d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,049 11d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,336 11d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,339 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 13d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY Cleveland Guardians 40¢ $47 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.69 · official $367.69 (match) · 428 history records