Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0b18…be5a sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 647d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$280 (+2%) realized +$423 · open −$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$428per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$278
14 days+$278
30 days+$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$1,665
politics 36% −$725
other 15% −$507
crypto 2% −$143
world 2% +$106
economics 1% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +109.4% +89.5% 100% 100% +89.5%
≤30d 1 +109.4% +89.5% 100% 100% +89.5%
≤90d 1 +109.4% +89.5% 100% 100% +89.5%
all 40 +0.8% -8.8% 48% 48% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 48% -7.7%
10% -17.5% 40% -16.5%
15% -25.5% 30% -24.6%
20% -32.8% 18% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +109% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$319 vs −$272 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

647d coverage
Net worth$957
Realized+$423
Unrealized−$143
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage647d
Avg bet$428
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1,000 $919 −$81 (-8%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $100 $38 −$62 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $254 +$278 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Dec 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Dec 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will anyone say "Inflation" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 2 Oct 23 $40 +$43 +108%
Will anyone say "Immigrant" or "Migrant" 10+ times during 2nd NYC mayo Oct 23 $250 +$123 +49%
Warriors vs. Lakers Oct 22 $235 +$108 +46%
Chiefs vs. Giants Sep 22 $1,000 +$351 +35%
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference? Sep 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Braves vs. Nationals Sep 17 $1,000 +$355 +36%
Angels vs. Mariners Sep 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Phillies vs. Dodgers Sep 16 $1,000 +$887 +89%
Bills vs. Jets Sep 15 $1,000 +$111 +11%
Mets vs. Tigers Sep 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Sep 02 $1,000 +$235 +24%
Warriors vs. Rockets May 05 $500 +$406 +81%
Rams vs. Eagles Jan 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Commanders vs. Buccaneers Jan 13 $500 +$720 +144%
Will JD Vance say "Tampon" during the debate? Oct 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tim Walz say "Abortion" 5 or more times during the debate? Oct 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tim Walz say "Obamacare", "ACA" or "Affordable Care Act" during t Oct 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will JD Vance say "border" 5 or more times during the debate? Oct 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will JD Vance say "Fentanyl" during the debate? Oct 02 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Tim Walz say "Coach" during the debate? Oct 02 $300 +$105 +35%
Will Donald Trump say "China" 10 or more times during his Michigan tow Sep 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "tampon" during his Pennsylvania rally? Sep 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Michigan to Sep 28 $100 +$1,150 +1150%
Will Kamala Harris say "ceasefire" during her Wisconsin rally? Sep 23 $300 +$206 +68%
Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his Unio Sep 19 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his Uniondale rally? Sep 19 $250 +$110 +44%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" 5+ times during the X space? Sep 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Secret Service" during his Michigan town hall? Sep 18 $3,000 +$750 +25%
Will Donald Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Michigan to Sep 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "tampon" during his Nevada rally? Sep 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "China" 5 or more times during his Nevada rally? Sep 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" at debate? Sep 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" 5+ times during the X space? Sep 17 $200 +$82 +41%
Will Kamala say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" at debate? Sep 11 $117 +$23 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,029 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $254 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $25 123d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 161d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 161d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 12¢ $500 183d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 183d
Falcons vs. Buccaneers BUY Buccaneers 71¢ $1,000 189d
Will anyone say "Immigrant" or "Migrant" 10+ times during 2nd NYC mayo BUY No 67¢ $250 240d
Will anyone say "Inflation" during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 2 BUY No 48¢ $40 240d
Warriors vs. Lakers BUY Warriors 69¢ $235 240d
Chiefs vs. Giants BUY Chiefs 74¢ $1,000 270d
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference? BUY No 35¢ $200 275d
Braves vs. Nationals BUY Braves 74¢ $1,000 275d
Phillies vs. Dodgers BUY Phillies 53¢ $1,000 276d
Bills vs. Jets BUY Bills 90¢ $1,000 278d
Angels vs. Mariners BUY Angels 59¢ $150 280d
Mets vs. Tigers BUY Tigers 10¢ $100 289d
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks BUY Rangers 81¢ $1,000 290d
Warriors vs. Rockets BUY Warriors 55¢ $500 410d
Rams vs. Eagles BUY Rams 28¢ $200 517d
Commanders vs. Buccaneers BUY Commanders 41¢ $500 523d
Will Tim Walz say "Obamacare", "ACA" or "Affordable Care Act" during t BUY No 18¢ $100 626d
Will Tim Walz say "Coach" during the debate? BUY Yes 74¢ $300 626d
Will JD Vance say "Fentanyl" during the debate? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 626d
Will JD Vance say "border" 5 or more times during the debate? BUY No 8¢ $50 626d
Will Donald Trump say "China" 10 or more times during his Michigan tow BUY No 17¢ $100 630d
Will Donald Trump say "border" 15 or more times during his Michigan to BUY No 8¢ $100 630d
Will Tim Walz say "Abortion" 5 or more times during the debate? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 632d
Will JD Vance say "Tampon" during the debate? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 632d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $956.89 · official $956.89 (match) · 79 history records