Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0B 0x0b14…5022 sports 229 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$636 (-1%) realized −$639 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate70%151W / 66L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$301est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$10
14 days−$19
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$141
weather 4% −$35
politics 4% −$24
tech 1% +$48
crypto 1% −$80
other 0% −$59
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.7% -0.7% 100% 20% -1.6%
≤30d 20 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 5% -10.0%
≤90d 217 -6.6% -15.5% 70% 38% -10.1%
all 217 -6.6% -15.5% 70% 38% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 38% -10.1%
10% -23.6% 20% -18.7%
15% -31.0% 11% -26.5%
20% -37.8% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$97 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$639
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses151 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$301
Open positions12
Markets (closed)217 / 229
History coverage69d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? Yes 91¢ 87¢ $32 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+40%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+114%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $15 +$1 +5%
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $14 +$3 +23%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $41 +$3 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $33 +$3 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $32 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $36 +$3 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $49 +$5 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $36 +$3 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 02 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? May 30 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? May 29 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? May 26 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? May 25 $35 +$2 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? May 24 $35 +$3 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? May 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026? May 22 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026? May 21 $29 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026? May 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026? May 19 $28 +$2 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026? May 17 $35 +$3 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 16, 2026? May 16 $34 +$5 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 15, 2026? May 15 $26 +$13 +52%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 14, 2026? May 15 $37 +$16 +43%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 13, 2026? May 13 $34 +$8 +24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 12, 2026? May 12 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 11, 2026? May 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026? May 10 $23 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Gr May 10 $149 −$149 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 10 $302 −$189 -62%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 10 $151 −$127 -84%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 10 $492 +$91 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs The Huns Esports - Map 1 Winner May 10 $432 +$62 +14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $401 +$23 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 9, 2026? May 10 $16 +$2 +12%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner May 09 $273 +$143 +52%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage May 09 $370 −$108 -29%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $332 +$17 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 09 $19 +$2 +8%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 08 $392 +$62 +16%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 08 $351 +$39 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $32 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 25h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 5d
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $42 7d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $33 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $41 12d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $32 13d
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 15¢ $14 13d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 14d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $34 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $16 15d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $36 18d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $49 19d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $22 19d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $24 21d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $36 28d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 28d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 30d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $22 31d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $17 33d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $35 34d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 24, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $35 35d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 23, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 36d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $27 37d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 21, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $29 38d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 20, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.90 · official $90.90 (match) · 738 history records