Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0B 0x0b14…3ca3 sports 273 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,825 (-9%) realized −$8,107 · open +$282
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%108W / 157L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$1,560est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,453
7 days−$42
14 days−$3,728
30 days+$1,892
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$5,056
other 7% −$1,677
crypto 0% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +19.1% +7.8% 55% 53% -9.3%
≤30d 161 +10.5% -0.0% 47% 45% -2.9%
≤90d 265 -5.4% -14.4% 41% 40% -15.4%
all 265 -5.4% -14.4% 41% 40% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 40% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 39% -23.5%
15% -30.1% 38% -30.9%
20% -36.9% 36% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$297 vs −$250 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$2,226
Realized−$8,107
Unrealized+$282
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses108 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,560
Open positions9
Markets (closed)265 / 273
History coverage53d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 45¢ 100¢ $235 $521 +$287 (+122%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $396 $477 +$81 (+20%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $331 $346 +$15 (+5%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 51¢ 52¢ $317 $321 +$4 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $193 $165 −$28 (-14%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 40¢ 42¢ $143 $147 +$4 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $132 $107 −$24 (-18%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 51¢ 52¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $95 $37 −$58 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $237 −$234 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $345 +$381 +110%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $99 +$231 +233%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $101 +$208 +206%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $99 +$121 +122%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $301 +$203 +67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $723 −$716 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $113 −$112 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $251 −$215 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,401 −$1,386 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $148 −$148 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $819 −$283 -34%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $119 −$116 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $297 −$293 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $113 +$98 +86%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 14 $217 −$105 -48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$86 -85%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 14 $273 −$273 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $255 +$194 +76%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $493 +$654 +133%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $208 −$205 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $101 +$110 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $251 −$247 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 −$266 -89%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $150 −$149 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $97 +$134 +138%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $117 +$157 +134%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $95 +$4 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 +$135 +134%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $62 −$61 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $101 −$98 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$99 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $99 +$121 +122%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $300 +$311 +104%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 +$110 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $165 +$262 +159%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $242 +$96 +40%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Giron (+1.5) Jun 12 $116 +$99 +85%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $99 +$148 +150%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $144 +$92 +63%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $108 +$98 +91%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $276 +$199 +72%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $99 +$169 +170%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $101 −$99 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $95 −$90 -94%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $99 +$137 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $1 10m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $2 44m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $235 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $30 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $16 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $500 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $291 55m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $642 57m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 41¢ $42 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 52¢ $11 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 52¢ $50 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 51¢ $100 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 51¢ $161 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $3 2h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 33¢ $120 3h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 44¢ $17 4h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 45¢ $17 4h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 44¢ $62 4h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 44¢ $5 4h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 44¢ $16 4h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 43¢ $218 5h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $4 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $75 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $1 11h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 32¢ $101 16h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 40¢ $11 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $248 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,226.18 · official $2,226.35 (match) · 1205 history records