Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0b10…e99b crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+29%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%49W / 66L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days−$3
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$51
sports 13% +$8
other 10% −$4
politics 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.0% -20.4% 43% 43% +0.6%
≤30d 70 +7.8% -2.5% 40% 37% +26.0%
≤90d 115 +9.3% -1.1% 43% 39% +16.6%
all 115 +9.3% -1.1% 43% 39% +16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 39% +16.6%
10% -10.6% 38% +5.4%
15% -19.2% 38% -4.8%
20% -27.1% 36% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses49 / 66
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)115 / 120
History coverage123d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $2 +$3 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 31 $3 −$1 -28%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 30 $3 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 26 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 25 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 25 $2 +$7 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 24 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 24 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 24 $2 +$9 +435%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 24 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 24 $2 +$5 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 8d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 0¢ $1 12d
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $2 13d
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 13d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $2 14d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.75 · official $10.75 (match) · 218 history records