Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b0e…ef67 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%21W / 120L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$8
sports 26% −$8
politics 20% −$11
crypto 12% −$3
world 5% −$3
culture 3% $0
economics 2% −$2
finance 2% −$3
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 141 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses21 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage159d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $57 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $99 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $256 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $163 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 14 $55 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $145 −$3 -2%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 12 $432 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 09 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $273 −$1 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $57 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $410 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 07 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 31 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 31 $223 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 30 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $354 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $170 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 28 $162 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 28 $176 −$1 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 27 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 27 $171 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 27 $168 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $57 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 97¢ $44 8d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 98¢ $44 8d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $54 20d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $54 20d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 93¢ $53 32d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $53 33d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $52 58d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $52 59d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $53 59d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 59d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $55 59d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $55 59d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $53 59d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $49 59d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $49 60d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $54 60d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $54 60d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $52 60d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $53 60d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $44 60d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $44 60d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $47 61d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $47 61d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $49 61d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $49 61d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 61d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 61d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 92¢ $57 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.47 · official $56.47 (match) · 684 history records