Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b0e…4778 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-4%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%20W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day81.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$62
sports 32% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -3.4% -12.6% 80% 40% -13.0%
≤30d 25 -3.4% -12.6% 80% 40% -13.0%
≤90d 25 -3.4% -12.6% 80% 40% -13.0%
all 25 -3.4% -12.6% 80% 40% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 40% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 16% -21.3%
15% -28.6% 0% -28.9%
20% -35.6% 0% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses20 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day81.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $69 +$8 +12%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $64 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $23 +$6 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $18 +$3 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $8 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$10 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$3 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $59 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $158 −$44 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $12 $0 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $111 +$20 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $77 24m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $69 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $69 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 92¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 237 history records