Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b0b…d351 sports 218 markets active 2h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%31W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$3
sports 25% −$6
other 21% −$2
crypto 10% −$6
economics 9% −$2
world 5% −$1
culture 4% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.6%
all 217 -0.1% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses31 / 186
Open positions1
Markets (closed)217 / 218
History coverage169d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $32 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 22 $108 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 21 $111 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $137 $0 -0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $91 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 17 $32 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 17 $63 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 16 $188 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $121 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 13 $160 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 12 $131 −$1 -1%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? Mar 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 10 $218 −$2 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 09 $88 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $42 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $31 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $32 13d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $30 25d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $31 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $35 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $35 33d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $29 87d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $29 87d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $28 87d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $28 87d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $31 87d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $31 88d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $37 88d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $37 88d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $29 88d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $1 88d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $7 88d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $21 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $41 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $41 88d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $36 88d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $36 89d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $36 89d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $36 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 96¢ $37 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 95¢ $36 89d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $40 89d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 90d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 95¢ $33 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.06 · official $30.06 (match) · 804 history records