Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b0a…b325 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+11%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%10W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day92.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$4
other 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 36% -12.9%
≤30d 28 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 36% -12.9%
≤90d 28 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 36% -12.9%
all 28 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 36% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 36% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 32% -21.2%
15% -35.6% 29% -28.8%
20% -42.0% 25% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses10 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day92.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +178%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +223%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$16 +312%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.78 · official $3.78 (match) · 109 history records