Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b08…1ef4 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$1
other 23% +$1
politics 16% −$12
sports 8% $0
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.4%
all 28 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 4% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -11.5%
10% -19.5% 4% -19.9%
15% -27.3% 4% -27.7%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage466d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $15 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $27 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 30 $36 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $9 $0 -4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu before June? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +40%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes be Eastern Conference champions? May 25 $13 $0 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? May 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 15 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $20 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $21 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $40 16h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $1 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $35 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $24 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $36 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $8 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $27 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $12 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $36 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $36 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $8 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $9 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records