Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0b05…8983 other 307 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,400 (-10%) realized −$1,277 · open −$123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate81%220W / 51L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$158
14 days+$7
30 days+$850
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$444
politics 47% −$2,040
crypto 3% −$30
world 0% −$10
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +9.0% -1.4% 96% 14% +33.3%
≤30d 132 +21.2% +9.7% 90% 15% +19.6%
≤90d 271 +6.2% -3.9% 81% 11% -20.5%
all 271 +6.2% -3.9% 81% 11% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 11% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 8% -28.1%
15% -21.5% 7% -35.1%
20% -29.2% 7% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$65 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$617
Realized−$1,277
Unrealized−$123
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses220 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions36
Markets (closed)271 / 307
History coverage81d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $325 $276 −$48 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $109 $71 −$38 (-34%)
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+700%)
Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+550%)
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+175%)
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $108 +$51 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $15 +$4 +26%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $88 +$60 +68%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $51 +$54 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $87 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $49 8h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $47 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $21 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $31 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $28 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.51 · official $616.44 (match) · 2650 history records