Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b03…a7fe other 255 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-0%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$40
sports 28% −$15
crypto 7% −$5
culture 7% −$6
economics 6% −$28
politics 6% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 2% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage132d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $129 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $143 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $251 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $152 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $156 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $210 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $256 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $376 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $238 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $154 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $368 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $346 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $42 5h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 7h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 8h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 9h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 12h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 14h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 14h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 16h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 17h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 18h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 20h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 22h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 30h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 32h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 33h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 35h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 36h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 37h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 39h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 41h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 42h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 43h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 45h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 46h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $44 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $44 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.33 · official $42.33 (match) · 1444 history records