Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0B 0x0b00…c22d other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 43% -8.5%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 43% -8.5%
≤90d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 43% -8.5%
all 7 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 43% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 43% -8.5%
10% -17.8% 43% -17.2%
15% -25.7% 29% -25.2%
20% -33.0% 29% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 74¢ 94¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $1 42h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 42h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.55 · official $4.04 (match) · 14 history records