Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0afd…84be crypto 1001 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%530W / 471L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day58.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$151
14 days−$497
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 51% -13.9%
≤30d 612 +0.2% -9.3% 54% 54% -9.3%
≤90d 1001 +3.5% -6.4% 53% 53% -7.6%
all 1001 +3.5% -6.4% 53% 53% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 53% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 53% -16.5%
15% -23.5% 52% -24.5%
20% -31.0% 50% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses530 / 471
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1001 / 1001
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day58.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1001 Trades
no open positions (473 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$28 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$22 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$28 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$22 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$21 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$26 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$22 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$20 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$23 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$22 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$25 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$21 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$22 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$36 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$22 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$24 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$21 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $32 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.38 · official $50.00 · 3484 history records