Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0afc…d99c sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-26%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$6
weather 39% $0
finance 5% $0
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -40.3% -46.0% 27% 18% -47.7%
≤90d 11 -40.3% -46.0% 27% 18% -47.7%
all 11 -40.3% -46.0% 27% 18% -47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.0% 18% -47.7%
10% -51.2% 18% -52.7%
15% -55.9% 18% -57.3%
20% -60.2% 9% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Partizan Esport vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Sta May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St May 27 $2 −$1 -25%
Royer vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 36.5 May 27 $1 $0 +38%
ITF Monastir: Tiago Pires vs Loan Lestir May 27 $1 +$1 +66%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Monastir: Nicolas Tepmahc vs Diogo Marques May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Troisdorf: Ondrej Horak vs Adrian Oetzbach May 27 $1 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 26 $1 $0 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.00 · official $9.00 (match) · 27 history records